Terminal ROI: A Data Report
What actually drives payback across a sample of operating terminals.
Investment: the numbers behind payback
Payback on a drink machine is decided by three numbers, not by the machine price: cups sold per day, gross margin per cup, and the fixed cost of the site. Everything else, including the machine's feature list, only shifts those three.
The pages below work through the arithmetic with ranges taken from operating sites, and mark clearly which assumptions are site-specific. Treat any single-number payback claim, including ours, as a starting hypothesis rather than a result.
Five lines decide a payback
A payback figure is only as good as the lines behind it. Most disagreements about whether a site "works" are disagreements about which lines were included.
| Line | What it is | What moves it | What buyers get wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equipment + install | Machine, delivery, commissioning | Format, tooling, site conditions | Forgetting the electrical work |
| Consumables | Capsules, cups, lids, cleaning | Menu mix and waste | Using a list price, not an invoice |
| Site share | Revenue share or fixed rent | Negotiation and exclusivity | Not checking whether it is on revenue or profit |
| Power | Standby plus per-cup draw | Chilling, heating, screen, hours | Assuming idle means zero |
| Parts and service | Callouts, spares, downtime | Route density and age | Budgeting zero in year one |
Payback is investment divided by steady monthly net, and both halves deserve scepticism. The investment is usually understated by installation and overstated by optimism; the net is usually overstated by omitting the site share and understated by ignoring the ramp.
The honest output is a band, not a number: a slow case where volume arrives late, a base case at the modelled plateau, and a fast case that requires everything to go right. If the slow case cannot survive, the site is a bet rather than an investment - which is a legitimate choice, as long as it is made knowingly.
Investment questions
What is a realistic payback for a drink machine?+
It depends almost entirely on cups per day and the site share, so a single number is misleading. Model it at your own cup volume, price and share, then look at the slow case. If a supplier quotes a figure without showing those inputs, the figure is a mood rather than a calculation.
What margin per cup is normal?+
Margin per cup is price minus consumable cost, before site share, power and service. It looks healthy on its own and thin once the fixed lines land, which is why per-cup margin alone is a poor decision variable.
Should installation be included in the payback?+
Yes. Delivery, commissioning and any electrical work are part of what the site costs to open. Leaving them out shortens the payback by however much they were, which is exactly the kind of error that survives a spreadsheet and not a bank account.
What kills a payback fastest?+
A site share agreed on the wrong base, followed by downtime in the first month. The first is permanent, the second teaches customers to stop trying - and habits are harder to rebuild than machines.
12 Rules for an Unmanned Retail Startup
Operating rules that survive contact with real sites.
Unattended Retail ROI Across Cities
How city tier, rent and labour change the break-even point.
Refill Planning at Transit Sites
Refill frequency as a cost line, and how to reduce it without stockouts.
Looking for something narrower? The full article index groups every guide by topic - placement, cleaning, payment, restocking and more.
Dozzon Innovation Technology, specializing in smart unmanned retail equipment R&D and manufacturing.